Introduction
Africa is currently experiencing the fastest demographic growth in the world, with an annual rate of 2.5%. Its population, estimated at 1.56 billion inhabitants, is expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. This demographic dynamic is accompanied by a sharp increase in energy demand, which is projected to double by 2040 as a result of rapid urbanization and industrialization. Yet, despite a colossal solar potential estimated at 60 million TWh per year—representing 40% of the global potential—and a hydropower capacity of nearly 350 GW, close to 600 million Africans still lack access to reliable electricity. This situation hampers economic growth and exacerbates energy poverty (Afrewatch, 2024; IRENA, 2023).
From a climate perspective, the continent accounts for only 9.6% of cumulative global emissions (UNECA, 2021). Nevertheless, Africa faces a dual challenge: addressing a major energy deficit (IEA, 2022) while simultaneously initiating a rapid ecological transition. Historically driven by the exploitation of natural resources and accelerated urbanization (UNCTAD, 2012), African growth must now reinvent itself to avoid the pitfalls of carbon‑intensive industrialization. With its vast renewable energy potential—solar, wind, geothermal—Africa has the opportunity to achieve a genuine technological “leapfrog” by developing decentralized, sustainable, and resilient energy systems (IRENA, 2019; AREI, 2018).
In response to these challenges, the scientific literature is marked by a fundamental tension: how can African countries reconcile energy sovereignty and the industrialization required for economic development without compromising the goal of carbon neutrality? Two main positions emerge. The first advocates for a transitional use of fossil fuels—particularly natural gas—to support industrialization and energy security (Birol, 2022). The second calls for an immediate shift to renewable energies to avoid the risk of “stranded assets” (Gemenne, 2023). Beyond technological considerations (Bekolo et al., 2025), the notion of a “just transition” (Boucetta, 2024) has gained prominence, emphasizing that the energy transition must be accompanied by social inclusion, equity, and the creation of decent jobs.
Researchers are also examining innovative business models (Alkhanbouli et al., 2020) and institutional mechanisms (UNECA, 2021) capable of fostering green and inclusive growth. However, theoretical limitations persist: dominant analytical frameworks—largely developed in OECD countries—struggle to capture African specificities. They often assume universal access to energy and a fully industrialized economy, whereas the continent remains characterized by the prevalence of the informal economy (Benjamin & Mbaye, 2012), cultural diversity (Hofstede, 2001; Jackson, 2004), community resilience, and the coexistence of multiple forms of authority, including traditional systems.
Studies on the governance of the energy transition in Africa (Baker, 2015; Trotter, 2016) highlight the need for endogenous models capable of integrating local actors’ logics, institutional heterogeneity, and the realities of energy poverty. The academic challenge, therefore, lies in conceptualizing a non‑linear and inclusive green growth trajectory—one that is not a mere transposition of Western models, but a genuinely African pathway toward sustainable development.